I've been thinking that it could one day topple Flash.
I've seen a lot of cool stuff in HTML5 that well outperforms anything I've seen in Flash - as far as the programming side goes. This includes things like webGL. However they're only available with a browser that supports the canvas element - which means I need to wait for FF to catch up, or get on the chrome train.
For drawing and animation, as far as I can tell you still need some editor to create/export graphics - whether or not Flash is used for editing is dependent on what the author prefers - but I have seen animations in HTML5 that are better than typical 1999 Flash animations - actually comparable to things I see today - however, not to the artistic level of many top NG animations. However, I doubt this is due to the potential limits of HTML5, and more due to its small development numbers - and perhaps due to the attraction so far to primarily the coding community.
It seems like it will take more time for the guys in charge to agree on all the aspects, features, and elements HTML5 will provide. So for a while, I don't think we will see development numbers increase much. Even if HTML5 does end up being better than Flash in every way, you still need to consider the investments people put in learning and developing using Flash (and bias). Just because something is superior doesn't mean it will catch on.
-Richie
JohnnyUtah
this whole argument is beyond ridiculous.
HTML5 can't even come close to replicating a flash movie or game from 1999. so how far in the "near future" until html is better at everything flash can do? both have their place, but saying flash is dead or will be replaced "soon" is foolish.
Xaotik
I would tend to agree with you considering the animation standpoint, although what I wrote above really didn't consider animation, just programming.
But yeah, like I said, I agree, HTML5 is incapable of replicating the quality of animation that Flash can output.